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PASTOR GENERAL'S REPORT, SEPTEMBER 2, 1983
PAGE 13
During this century methods of agricultural production in the in
dustrialized world have been changing rapidly, largely because of
a substantial increase in mechanized methods.... The genetic
potential of crops has also increased, the application of appro
priate levels of fertilizers and pesticides has become routine
and the cultivation of land and harvesting of crops takes place
at the optimum time because of new machinery....
Livestock production has undergone a similar revolution. Cattle,
pigs and poultry are now housed in heated and ventilated build
ings with piped water and mechanized feeding. Vastly improved
methods of hygiene, together with vaccines and medicines, control
the most significant disease problems. Automated manure dispo
sal, machine milking and automatic egg collection contribute to
the low levels of labour required for livestock husbandry. All
these systems de l end on regular, uninterrupted supplies of elec'=
tr1city, liquid uel and gas, and water.
�
While these changes have been taking place, a revolution has
occurred in food distribution.... We now have a-complex chain()!
food process�organ1zations, transferring farm produce from the
countryside to a largely urban population. Food processing and
distribution have become complex activities, heavily dependent on
techniques such as pasteurization, freezing, freeze-drying and
the application of chemical additives for preservation.
However, the effect of these changes� been to increase sharply
the vulnerability of the� production supply chain. There are
three critically essential inputs to the modern agr1cultural
system: fossil fuels, electricity and water. A disruption to
the availability of any, even for a few days, would have serious
consequences. There are just not enough people available to milk
cows by hand. Equally, if the electricity fails there will be no
way to save the bulk of the milk produced.
In the absence of
water and ventilation, poultry in battery cages and broiler
houses would have to be killed. Without fossil fuels it would
become extremely difficult to distribute food .•..
Even if we totally ignore the nuclear dimension, well-directed
attacks on power stations, water treatment plants, spare parts
depots and fertil1zer factories could completely disru e t �
(Great Britain's] agricultural system, reducing production �
� erha � s four-fifths. The same would apply elsewhere in the in
ustr1alized world. The action of an enemy need not be directed
even to food production centres, because power stations, distri
bution and transport networks and fuel depots would be natural
targets in any conflict.
One should not ignore the possible effects of such a breakdown in
the food distribution system on ordered behaviour. The possibil
ity of a situation arising in which food was available only to a
limited or to a selected part of the population would lead to
wide-scale civil disorder. One may equally imagine the effects
of hunger on the population of a nation which possesses nuclear
weapons but does not wish to use them. If the inhabitants of
Leningrad had known of such a major weapon they would eventually