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PASTOR GENERAL'S REPORT, SEPTEMBER 2, 1983
PAGE 11
Indiana, and additional claims are being considered in Kansas,
Kentucky, Missouri and Iowa, where worried farmers rallied 2,500
strong last week to hear Republican Rep. James Leach call the
drought "the worst disaster of our generation.... "
Excruciating heat has not been the only weather factor bringing
grief across the nation, which has witnessed a season fraught
with such extremes as hurricanes and 100-degree-plus temperatures
occurring simultaneously only a few states apart.
In Texas, [ ironically lashed by] heavy rains from Hurricane
Alicia, western portions of the state are experiencing the worst
drought since the 1950s.... "Farmers are literally going out of
business, shutting it down, 1iquidating," said Doug Zabel, a
spokesman for the Texas Department of Agriculture. "It's beyond
just a handful of farmers suffering economic damage. We're at
the point where the drought is doing serious ecological damage
that is going to take years to repairi"
�rancher�� Texas agriculture official that he knew what
rain looked like, but he has� 3-year-old daughter he hoped would
� to see it someday.
Martin Abel, senior vice president of Schnittker Associates, a
private economic agricultural forecasting firm, said the drought
covers� bi � ger area and is longer lasting than either of the
most recent roughts of 1980 and 1974.
In view of what could be the beginning of a prolonged dry spell, one wonders
whether U.S. officials exulted too soon when, on August 26, the Soviet
Union signed a long-term grain deal with the U.S. under which Moscow is to
purchase $10 billion worth of American wheat or corn over the next five
years. Washington had been restricting agricultural sales to the U.S.S.R.
as a result of Soviet behavior in Afghanistan and Poland. But President
Reagan bowed to pressure from U.S. farmers to increase sales under a guar
anteed contract in order to reduce surpluses and drive up farm prices.
Surpluses can be drained rather quickly, however, as a result of bad
weather. The U.S. corn crop this year will be only 4.7 billion bushels,
slightly over half of last year's record 8.4 billion bushel harvest. With
the record 3.4 billion bushel surplus left from the previous two years,
there still is expected to be a reserve of 1.5 billion bushels after export
commitments and domestic needs. But what if next year is bad...and the
next?
Significantly, the Soviets, bargaining hard, came off with what could be a
dangerous--to the u.s.--guarantee. Tired of on-again, off-again access to
the U.S. market, they obtained a pledge from the U.S. not to embargo its
shipments during the five-year term of the pact. One wonders whether this
provision also would prevail should the U.S. be faced with the prospect of
domestic shortages.
Which comes first, export obligations or domestic
needs? Here, anyway, is how the August 26 LOS ANGELES TIMES expressed the
guarantee given to the Soviets:
In an important concession on the American side, the agreement
states that the U.S. government "shall not exercise any discre-