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PASTOR GENERAL'S REPORT, April 24, 1981
ON THE WORLD SCENE
MASSIVE ARMS BUILDUP IN MIDEAST TINDERBOX Fueled by sales and grants
from the two superpowers, the U.S. and the Soviet Union, the volatile
Middle East is bristling more than ever with huge amounts of sophis
ticated weaponry.
The most visible example of this is the decision reached by the Reagan
Administration to sell five advanced aerial radar (AWACS) planes and
other military equipment to Saudi Arabia. The package includes aerial
refueling tankers plus long-range fuel tanks and sophisticated air-to-air
missiles to be added to the Saudis' u.s.-built F-15 fighters.
President Reagan will have a tough time getting congressional approval of
the package due to the strong pro-Israel lobby on Capital Hill. Israel
has sent out the word to its friends to fight the package tooth-and-nail.
Tel Aviv probably would have backed off on the Saudi F-15 improvement
program, but the AWACS deal is simply too much. The Israelis fear that
the Saudis will use these sophisticated airborne radar crafts to spy on
Israeli military actions--or even, in event of war, to vector (set the
course of) Syrian or other Arab craft on anti-Israeli missions. Former
Israeli Foreign Minister Abba Eban calls the AWACS plane "an Arab eye
in the �ky."
Saudi Arabia, meanwhile, is making the arms package a test of future U.S.
Saudi relations. Saudi officials claim (probably correctly as of now)
that the craft will not be directed against Israel. Both the Saudis and
Pentagon officials view the deal only as helping the oil-rich desert
kingdom defend its vast territory against a future Soviet threat. It is
known now that the Saudis have kept on pumping an extra million barrels
of oil a day than necessary, helping to produce the current world oil
glut and thus keeping their prices low ($32 a barrel versus an average
$36 for OPEC)--all to win Washington's favor for the arms deal.
An often overlooked danger in the entire affair is this: What if this
equipment falls into the wrong hands? The military people who will pilot
the F-lS's and the new 300 Leopard tanks on order from West Germany just
might decide to use their power to overthrow the Saudi royal family. And
they might be decidedly more anti-Israel. Such has happened before in
the Arab world. Colonel Qaddafi's revolution in Libya, for example, de
posed King Idris once Qaddafi was properly armed.
Much has been said about how the introduction of U.S. manned forces into
the Middle East would destabilize the region. But some experts now be
lieve that U.S. or other Western forces operating this equipment would
likely lead to less instability than native forces armed with the same
equipment.
The Russians don't take such risks in their client states. They have
enormous stockpiles of weapons in Libya and Syria. But the Russians and
their East European allies man the most sophisticated equipment themselves.
In this manner, no dissident group can use the arms to overthrow a pro
Soviet government.
The Russians, for their part, have greatly accelerated the war-footing
that the entire Middle East is on. Syria, for example, now has more
tanks than Nazi Germany deployed in its 1941 invasion of Russia.