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PASTOR GENERAL'S REPORT, December 5, 1980
Page 23
including about 700,000 communist party members! Many of its younger
leaders are openly contemptuous of the country's Communist bosses.
The political leadership, in turn, has tried to molify the country's
impassioned workers. Liberalization has picked up so much steam that it
threatens to get out of hand. The Communist Party newspaper Trybuna Ludu
now maintains that there are at least three factions in party ranks: one
group demanding an end to liberalization, a second wanting the liberali
zation trend to continue, and a third group that has abandoned party
ideology altogether.
Mieczyslaw Rakowski, editor of the weekly Polytika, states that union
leaders who do not seek "cooperation with the state and the party" appear
to be dominant in the labor movement. Even new Communist Party leader
Stanislaw Kania has warned militant independent labor leaders to "sober
up" and said they were threatening the peace of Europe.
Reports that the Soviet army is beefing up strength on Poland's Eastern
border and that the border region in East Germany adjacent to Poland has
been closed to travel add to heightened tension. Are the Soviets engaging
in mere saber-rattling? Or are they preparing to put into effect the
"Brezhnev doctrine"--extending "fraternal assistance" to a beleaguered
communist ally in order to "preserve the fruits of socialism"?
The feeling among Western experts is that if the Soviet Army does move
in (probably not before two weeks, when the ground will be firmer for
heavy weaponry) it will be as a last resort. The men in the Kremlin have
been fully warned by the West of the consequences they can expect.
In the first place, military interference would kill what's left of
detente. In the wake of Afghanistan, Western European nations were
reluctant to go along with President Carter's calls for punishment. But
Poland is much closer to home. The Soviets would probably face a total
cut off in Western grain sales. Worse yet, the Soviets would find them
selves burdened with the responsibility of making up Poland's serious food
deficiencies.
(Polish authorities would like to obtain some of the huge
butter and beef surplus of the Common Market.)
A takeover of Poland would also mean that Moscow would be saddled with
Poland's huge debts to Western-world banks, now nearly $23 billion. Per
haps as an indication of what the Soviets would prefer to do, they yester
day (December 2) gave the Poles a huge $1.1 billion no-strings-attached,
hard-currency loan. It is believed most of the money will be pumped
straight through to the West to meet Poland's debt commitment.
Not Like 1968
Soviet military moves against Poland would undoubtedly result in far
different consequences than those occurring after the combined Warsaw Pact
invasion of Czechoslovakia in 1968. That action squashed the liberaliza
tion efforts of the Czech communist government.
In 1968, 500,000 troops marched into Czechoslovakia. Of these, 50,000
were Poles, 20,000 East Germans, 20,000 Hungarians, and 10,000 Bulgarians.
This time an invasion could hardly be undertaken as a joint Warsaw Pact
(as opposed to strictly Soviet) venture. Many of the 250,000 troops of
Poland's national army would undoubted i:· revolt against Moscow's command