Basic HTML Version
PASTOR GENERAL'S REPORT, February 28, 1980
Page 12
The biggest fighting in Afghanistan may now have to wait until the spring
thaws. The rebels vow to open 100 fronts then, although since they are
still divided by factional infighting, they may not be able to make that
boast hold up. Still, they are getting increased aid from other Moslem
states. Egypt is training some of their commanders. Even the CIA is
spiriting in some Eastern Bloc weapons.
The upshot of all this is: The Soviets--unless they can pull out under
a face-saving arrangement--could soon be "up to their eyelids" in an
unending conflict. Intelligence experts predict that, before long, they
will have 200,000 troops in Afghanistan (they have 70,000 now). Some
American observers--no doubt hoping that Russia has stumbled into her own
"Vietnam"--postulate that the Soviets will have to eventually pour in
400,000 troops to quell the revolt--an army comparable to the U.S. mili
tary force that was sent to South East Asia.
Thus the cost to Moscow of staying in Afghanistan is rising rapidly. Yet,
barring some sort of settlement, the cost of leaving would be even greater
--the collapse of the puppet Karmal regime. As the Los Angeles Times
reportej on February 25, 1980: "If the Kremlin was seen to allow a
socialist regime to collapse, it could also have enormous implications in
Eastern Europe. The leadership would undoubtedly fear that such a failure
would only encourage dangerous moves among its satellites to establish
a more independent course from Moscow."
Russia's potential "sinkhole"
in
Afghanistan just could be the string that
unravels her East Europe empire!
Yugoslavia is on the threshhold of its long-expected "post-Tito" era.
At first, Yugoslav leaders viewed the Afghanistan invasion with deep
anxiety. Was this a forerunner of what could be expected in their nation?
But now, with the Soviets being sucked in deeper and deeper in Afghanistan,
Yugoslavia might have more room to maneuver, especially in strengthening
its ties to Western Europe.
(The Common Market, in a show of support, has
made a political decision to rush to completion a new trade pact with
Belgrade that had been deadlocked for two years.)
And then there is the rest of Eastern Europe. What if Catholics (and
eventually Orthodox), taking advantage of the Sovietc1ilemma, rose up in
a united revolt against Moscow? What could the Soviets, mired down-In�
Afghanistan, do? The potential is certainly there; witness Pope John
Paul II's electrifying visit to Poland last year, his open defiance of
Communist authorities and his call for the "spiritual unity of Europe."
It's possible that the very likelihood of such a far more serious crisis
erupting throughout her satellite empire is the reason for tenuous Soviet
olive branches in the past few days. President Brezhnev and Foreign
Minister Gromjki have both been hinting of willingness to pull out of
Afghanistan in return for the West's helping guarantee Afghanistan's
neutrality and seeing to the installation of a regime "not hostile" to
Soviet interests. The softer Moscow line developed after the Common
Market, on February 19, called for Afghanistan to be neutralized under
international guarantees.