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WESTGERMANY
(Continued from page 4)
bent, coasting along on the crest
of política! power and prestige.
Yet the Bavarian challenger was
right when he said after the elec–
tion that Mr. Schmidt "is now
faced with the hardest period of
his political lifetime."
Structural problems are begin–
ning to appear in the West Ger–
man economy. For the first time
in 15 years the Federal Republic
has chalked up an international
trade deficit. (Sales of Japanese
cars now pose a threat to the
German auto industry.)
Economic growth in what was
once called the "German loco–
motive" (for its supposed ability
to pull the rest of the sluggish
Western economies) is slowing
down and will probably amount
to no more than a 1.5 percent
increase in the gross national
product for 1980. Next year
there could even be a real de–
cline in GNP.
Labor costs are n.ow the high–
est in the world if employees'
contributions to social security
are taken into account. Unem–
ployment is expected to climb
soon to well more than one mil–
lion, putting a greater strain on
the already overstretched social
security system.
Contrary to what sorne foreign–
ers imagine, West Germans–
suggested none other than Eco–
nomic Minister Otto Lambs–
dorff- just may not work hard
enough any more, and, compared
to the Japanese at least, spend too
much time on holiday and sick
leave. The young are becoming
less interested in the once-hal–
lowed German work ethic and
more interested in the ecological
protest movement.
There are even signs of racial
tension in cities that have thc
largest concentration of foreign
workers. There are now more
than four million foreigners and
their famil ies living and working
in Germany, one fourth of
whom are Turks. Walking
arou nd the center of Frankfurt,
notici ng the many rather be-
December 1980
draggled Turkish mothers and
their children shuffling about,
looking at the Turkish language
newspapers and magazines at the
newsstands, makes one for a
moment think the scene is Istan–
bul, not the financia! center of
Germany.
All of these burdcns- to say
nothing of the fact that the chan–
cellor does not enjoy particularly
good health-weigh heavily for
the next four years, conveying the
impression, reported the
Times
of
London, that " Herr Schmidt and
his coalition may be entering
their last term of office."
Mr. Schmidt's own party, for–
tified on the left wing, is sorne-
West Ger man Chancel/or Helmut
Schmidt, right, rejoices in reelection
victory with Foreign Minister Hans·Die–
trich Genscher, chairman of the Free
Democratic Party which rules in coali–
tion with Mr. Schmidt's Social Demo–
crats.
what restless under his leader–
ship, sensing that it has, accord–
ing to one report, "found power
but lost its soul." The left radicaJs
will find it increasingly difficult
to be held in check by the moder–
ating FDP.
lt
is not inconceivable to con–
template a collapse of the SPD/
FDP coalition. Jn 1966, in the
midst of the four ycar legislation
period, the FDP pulled out of
the coalition they had at that
time with the CDU/CSU. The
Union parties then were forced
into a "grand coali tion" with the
S PD for the remaining two
years of the term. (West Germa–
ny does not provide for new
elections in the event the gov–
ernment falls.)
German-Ameri can " Love Affai r "
t o Sou r
It
is no secret that Chancellor
Schmidt has found life very diffi–
cult with the Carter administra–
tion in Washington. In fact, close
advisors say he is heartsick about
the lack of strong American lead–
ership in the world. It is for this
reason, not because of any latent
anti-Americanism, that Mr.
Schmidt has been tempted to fill
the leadership vacuum in the
West. In this role he has chosen
to work hand in glove with
French President Yalery Giscard
d 'Estaing.
This situation is not likely to
change after November 4, 1980,
regardless of who sits in the Oval
Office of the White House.
The rift between Washington
and Bonn- indeed between the
United States and all of free
Europe- is bound to widen as a
result of the leadership crisis.
"Failures of policy and nerve,"
"
~
notes Robert Strausz-Hupé, long-
~
time American diplomat and po–
!
~
litical scientist, "adding up to a
<;
worldwide retreat of American
j
power, have engendered a crisis
of confidence that smolders under
the placid surface of official U.S.–
West German relations.
" In no European country,"
continues Strausz-Hupé, writing
in the Winter 1980 issue of
Po/i–
cy R eview.
"has the American
influence been stronger than in
West Germany; no other Euro–
pean people has felt itself more
closely tied to the U.S. Hence the
crisis of confidence ... strains not
only the relationship between the
Bonn and Washington govern–
ments, but also the fabric of Ger–
man society, a society that has
taken ours as a model."
Hans W . Gatzke, in his new
book
Germany and the Uníted
Statesj"A Specíal Relatíon–
shíp?"
examines the remarkable
post-war relationship that has
existed between the United
States and West Germany. Con–
sidering that the two bloodiest
foreign wars fought by the
United States have been against
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