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in the march of end-time prophetic
events "famines, pestilences" fol–
low, in time sequence, after "nation
will rise against nation, and king–
dom against kingdom" (Matt. 24:7,
Revised Authorized Version).
The Human Fact or
Africa's food crises can only get
steadily worse, even if immediate
drought conditions are relieved.
Nothing substantial is being done
to eliminate the root causes in the
social and economic fields. And
warfare threatens to undo what
could be done anyway.
As a result, Africa's dependence
on relief aid will probably grow in
the year ahead. A study issued by
the Swedish Red C ross and by
Earthscan, a London-based envi–
ronmental news service, reports
that "events called 'natural disas–
ters' are killing more and more
people every year." Yet, these
observers note, "there is no evi–
dence that the climatological mech–
anisms associated with droughts,
ftoods and cyclones are changing."
Instead, the report says that
behind such "trigger events" the
answers must be found in
"human vulnerability re–
sulting from pover–
ty ... environmental deg–
radation, owing to poor
land use, and rapid popu–
lation growth, especially
among the poor."
The May 1984 Swedísh
Red Cross survey zeroed
in on the Ethiopian cri–
sis- before it made the
headlines (and before the
Ethiopian government fi–
nally admitted the extent
of the disaster).
Deforestation has prob–
ably been the single most
contributing factor to the
disaster in Ethiopia. In
the words of the report:
is covered by forests. In just a few
more years the country will have
lost al! remaining forests if the trend
continues unabated....
"The worst 'drought-affected' ·
farmland in the Gondar Region has
only bare rocks left. Most soil,
including all topsoil, is already gone.
This land has indeed 'reached quite
an irreversible condition,' to quote
the Ministry of Agriculture."
Ethiopia's denuded countryside
simply can no longer sustain the
nation's 35 mi ll ion people, 90 per–
cent of whom are still farmers. The
land is also seriously overgrazed,
unable to support its 77 million
head of livestock-Africa's largest
stock of domestic animals.
The result, as summed up in the
Swedish Red Cross survey: "Since
World War 11 the country has gone
from being a net exporter of ce–
reals, to self-sufficiency, to having
a cereal deficit. The per capita pro–
duction is falling by almost two per
cent each year, making the country
more and more dependent on
imports and outside assistance."
Tbroughout other parts of Africa
the ravaging effects of deforesta-
ern Africa a few years ago. It was
during a rainstorm. The countryside
was devoid of trees. Rainwater cas–
caded through enormous gullies
gouged into the hillsides into a mud–
dy, swollen river. 1 visited the young
Minister of Agriculture and told
him he had an enormous task ahead
of him in reversing the conditions 1
had just witnessed.
Another grim statistic to bear in
mind when examining Africa's
long- term
crisis is this: At least 20
percent of the continent is desert.
Worse yet is the belief by exper ts
tbat the process of "desertification"
could envelop 45 percent of Africa
50 years from now, if current land–
use trends continue.
India Next ?
After Africa, the lndian subconti–
nent may be the next region to
experience a severe food crisis.
Eighteen years ago, lndians stared
at famine. For weeks, an endless
procession of freighters and tankers
converted to grain haulage sailed
from the United States to India.
This oceanic pipeline rescued the
Indian people from starvation. The
"Ethiopia's steep high–
lands and parts of the low–
er areas were once covered
by various types of dense
forests. Less than a cen–
tury ago, about half of the
country still had forest
Victims of Ethiopian famine gatber at Red Cross camp in Wolio province for emergency
food supplies. Etbiopia's Marxist government spends nearly balf its budget on tbe military.
Most starving refugees are from areas of figbting between government forces and rebels.
cover. Twenty years ago, this had
dropped to about 15 per cent of the
land area. By now, only slightly more
than 3 per cent of Ethiopia's surface
April 1985
tion and resultant erosion are pain–
fully evident.
The author recalls visiting a small
newly independent nation in south-
crisis of 1967 abated. Since then,
the life-giving monsoons have gen–
erally been good. New "wonder
grains" produced as a result of the
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