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torial claim is not entirely clear.
Over the years, figures for the size
of the disputed area have ranged
from 33,000 square kilometers
( 13,000 square mi les) to 1.5 mil–
lion square kilometers (577,000
square mi les)--a vast area more
than twice the size of Texas.
Included in the disputed area are
the strategic city of Vladivostok
and much of the immense Soviet
republic of Kazakhstan .
Concern over the Sino-Soviet
border dispute reached its high
point i n March 1969 . In that
month, the controversy erupted
into armed fighting on a disputed
island in the ice-bound Ussuri Riv–
er north of Vladivostok.
The clash in the bleak snow-swept
wilderness of eastern Asia involved
at least a battalion of men on each
side.
lt
resulted in the deaths of
more than 30 Soviet border guards
andan unknown number of Chinese.
The two nations appeared to be on a
coll ision course, hovering close to
full-scale war!
In November 1972, carne anoth–
er border clash, this time thou–
sands of miles to the west.
It
took
the lives of at least five Soviet
soldiers and severa) shepherds near
the his torie Dzungarian Gate. This
"gate," used by Genghis Khan
when he led bis army into the
West , is a natural mountain pass
joining Soviet Kazakhstan and
China's strategic Sinkiang (Xin–
jiang) province.
In subsequent years, literally
doz–
ens
of armed skirmishes have taken
place in these remote disputed areas.
The last round of border talks was
broken off seven years ago.
Sorne experts believe that the
24
two nations have entered a classic
prewar situation.
Major Arms Bulldup
The Sino-Soviet borderlands are
heavily fortified on botb sides.
It is estimated that the Soviet
Union has nearly
a third
of its
entire 3.7-million-man army posi–
tioned on or near the Russian-Chi–
nese frontier. These Soviet troops
are armed with the latest weapons
and nuclear missiles. Also, the
Soviet Union now has nearly 2,000
advanced aircraft in defensive posi–
tion should a crisis occur
with either Chin a o r
J apan.
China's military prepa–
rations a re numerically
impressive. ChiDa has the
world's la rgest armed
force- t he 4.2-million–
man People's Liberation
Army . Much of its
strength is concentrated
near the sensitive border
with the Soviet Uniorr.
And China now has mis–
siles capable of hitting
Moscow, Leningrad and
other major centers in
European Russia.
Sorne military analysts believe
that the preparations on the Sino–
Soviet border represent the biggest
arms buildup the world has ever
seen!
Sovi et Nuc lear Blltz?
J ust more than a decade ago, the
Soviet Union could bave attacked
China with reasonable expectation
of des troying her ftedgling nuclear
bases while running only a small
risk of Chinese nuclear retaliation.
A preemptive Soviet nuclear blitz
against China was widely expected
by military analys ts at tbat time.
But Western defense officials
say today that the Soviet Union,
under warning from the United
States, missed its chance to destroy
China's nuclear program wbi le it
was still safe to do so. China, as one
observer put it , has long since
"grown out of its atomic diapers."
In view of Russia's diminishing
nuc lear advantage, diplomatic
sources in Europe and Asia today
virtually dismiss the possibility of a
Russian preemptive strike against
China. The Kremlin, they say,
would not risk such a dangerous
policy in the face of tbe present
odds.
True, Russia sti ll has both qualita–
tive and quantitative nuclear superi–
ority. But China, apart from her
nuclear factor, also has
manpower!
Kremlin planners realize that a
vigorous Chinese counterattac k
would be
certain- a
nuclear coun–
terattack if still poss ib le , but
unquestionably a massive
land
attack!
The chances are high that the
Soviets would quickly find them–
selves embroiled in a protracted
" Vietnam-type" situation in Chi–
na- a long conventional land war
fueled by the tenaciousness and
determination of the Chinese
people to defend the motherland.
Tbe Chinese have publicly vowed
to fight a 100-year war, if necessary,
to achieve victory in any Sino-Soviet
conflict that might erupt. The ene–
my, Peking has declared, would ulti–
mately be "drowned in the ocean of a
people's war."
The specter of multiple millions
of Chinese flooding across the bor–
der in a mammoth guerrilla cam–
paign fill s Kremlin strategists'
nights with dread. Such a scenario
is too horrible for t he average Rus–
sian to contemplate.
As one Western military expert
observed a few years ago:
" lf
Rus–
sia went into China, she may never
come out."
In his " Letter to· the Soviet
Leaders," Alexander Solzhenitsyn
said that a war with China would
last 10 to 15 years and would cost
Russia at least
60 mil/ion
dead.
The risks of a Soviet strike
against China are clearly prohibi–
tive. Such a war would be futile
and counterproductive for all con–
cerned.
An unwanted accidental con–
flict - sparked by unforeseen
causes and escalating quickly out of
control- always remains a possibil–
ity. Such a conflict could conceiv–
ably remain nonnuclear and be lim–
ited to action in border regions. But
even limited fighting of this sort is
generally considered unlikely.
Sino-Soviet Détente?
If
war has indeed become unthink–
able between the two communist
(Continued on page 30)
The PLAIN TRUTH