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tria, Sweden and West Germany
senior citizens already constitute at
least 15 percent of the population.
The developed nations worldwide
face a senior citizen population
explosion.
Longer life expectancies push up
the costs of health care and old-age
pensions, while a declining birth–
rate puts a greater tax burden upon
workers who must support the sys–
tem. lt's a major new dilemma for
governments.
An ever-growing elderly popula–
tion supported by fewer and fewer
workers creates an inverted pyra–
mid, expanding at the top while
shrinking at the bottom.
If
trends continue there will not
be enough workers to contribute to
the welfare systems that support
senior citizens. President Ronald
Reagan has warned of this prob–
lem. "There is a possibility- well ,
probability- that many people,
young people now paying in, will
never be able to receive as much as
they're paying."
The Gathering Storm
Today, the lessening ratio of work–
ers contributing to support ever–
increasing senior citizen popula–
tions can be likened to a gathering
thunderstorm. And the storm is
fast approaching.
Within the United States the
ranks of the very old- those in
their 80s and beyond- are tbe fast–
est growing age group.
The cost to care for them
Healfh,
February
1
March
1982).
The Bantu Tiríki of Kenya :
wiU increase by two thirds in the
next 15 years. "By the year 2000,"
said Barbara B. Turrey of the U.S.
Census Bureau, "more benefits will
be provided to octogenarians tban
any other subgroup of the aged or
for that matter, the general popula–
tion."
Within the United States about
three and a balf workers support
one pensioner. This ratio will drop
to two and a half to one witbin tbe
next decade. In West Germany the
ratio now is two to one and
demograpbers calculate the ratio as
one to one by the end of this cen–
tury. Japan has a ratio of 12 to one.
This will plunge to around two to
one by the year 2000.
What a dilemma! As fewer
workers support more pensioners,
governments are faced with two
cboices: either raise taxes to
unthinkably high levels, or cut ben–
efits to senior citizens.
Reports vary widely, but sorne
believe young workers would be
taxed up to 40 percent of their
gross pay just to pay for old-age
pensions. This rising burden on the
working population will create a
worker-to-senior-citizen generation
gap as young people pay increasing–
ly higher taxes. "The present sys–
tem of old-age care will inevitably
collapse," warns West German
sociologist Peter von Ehr. "There is
no way around it."
These programs are too politi-
cally sensitive to bear much cut–
ting. Most pension and welfare
payments are the only means of
support for recipients and to cut
back would bring hardships upon
the elderly. As David Stockman,
U .S. director of the Office of Man–
agement and Budget, admits, any–
one hoping for any additional
budget cuts is a "dreamer."
But tbe longer governments wait
before correcting the funding of
the inverted pyramid the bigger the
problem becomes. The bigger the
problem becomes, the more ex–
treme the corrections have to be in
order to be effective. The more
extreme tbe plan, the less likely
nations will be to adopt it.
As one Japanese official warned,
"The system can function normally
for the time being, but if changes
are not made soon, it will go bank–
rupt in 20 years."
Whose Responsiblllty?
Governments with the best of
intentions created old-age retire–
ment programs. Governments also
Jevied taxes for their programs. Tbe
State took to itself the responsibili–
ty, once exercised by religious
institutions, of providing for the
elderly. With increased availability
of welfare and retirement programs
carne a lessening need for having
children care for elderly parents.
The government would provide
what was needed.
Young people free
from their responsibility
dependents. Thus old,
dependen! parents are
unfailingly supported by their
offspring" (Marshall,
Peop/es ot Africa).
The Chagga in Tanzania:
~
"Caring for and being cared
..
~
for is part of lite from
:1:
beginning to end" (Kessler,
.!.
Human Behavior) .
~
The Aborigines of
J
Australia:
"The aborigines
~
everywhere and on all
" Right up until adolescence,
grandparents and other old
people take a dominan! role
in the informal instruction ot
children... . Grandchildren
in their turn come lo view
grandparents not only as
very kind and pleasant
people, but as the
storytellers and tutors of
worldly wisdom, and, most
importan!, as the people
they can depend on lo help
most in times of real trouble
or distress" (Sangree,
Peoptes of Africa) .
The Mbuti Pygmíes:
In historie Sarajevo, Yugoslavia
' ' .. . older people always
receive respect as such"
(Turnbull,
Peoples of Africa).
The Kung Bushmen of the
Kalahari Desert:
"8oth the
father and mother expect
and receive respect and
obedience from their
children.... As long as the
father lives, he is the head
of the family.... Kung
families are responsible for
occasions pay great respect
to old persons" (Thomas
Petrie,
Remíniscences of
Earty Queenstand) .
The Peasant People of
Yugoslavia:
"While children
may marry and leave the