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HOLYWAR?
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fighter-bombers. lraq already has
on hand approximately 30 long-dis–
tance over-water Exocet missiles of
the variety that wrought havoc on
the British Royal Navy in the Falk–
lands War. Iraq's apparent aim is to
destroy, or at least threaten to
destroy, Iran's Kharg lsland oil ter–
minal complex, as well as to warn
foreign-owned tankcrs not to load
oil there.
Already two merchant ships have
been sunk off the lranian coast,
presumably by Exocet missiles.
lran, in turn, has threatened to
block the Strait of Hormu z
entrance to the Gulf should its oil
facilities be wiped out. If a block–
acle is successful- no one knows
whether Iran's navy is capable of
carrying one out-40 percent of
Wes tern Europe's oil needs plus 60
percent of J apan's would be cut off,
crippling the world's economy.
The Pentagon has prepared a
mobile strike force to intervene if
necessary to keep the Gulf open.
Should such a force be used in any
action in the area, an embittered
Iran might try to destroy Saudi and
Gulf state oil facil ities across the
Gulf in retaliation .
In expectation of this, the states
of the Gulf Cooperation Council
(GCC)- S audi Arabia, Kuwait,
Bahrain, Qatar, the United Arab
Emirates and Oman- held their
firs t ever joint military exercises
last October. They are talking of
establishing what one source called
a "small-scale NATO of their
own. "
" Holy War" Zeal Spreads
The revolutionary government of
lra n is intent on propeJling its
" holy war" throughout the largely
Sunni Muslim Arab world. Wheth–
er the Shiite revolution over throws
the states and tiny sheikdoms of the
Gulf largely depends on the out–
come of the Iran- l raq war.
Throughout th e Ara b world,
governments adheri ng to the more
moderate Sunni branch of Islam
are becoming more strict in enforc–
ing religious observance, all in an
attemp t to in sulate themselves
from the radical fundamentalist
Shiite influence.
March 1984
The Sunni Arab states may not
succeed. Noted world affairs ana–
lyst Otto von Habsburg told
The
Plain Truth
that "the Shiites are a
revo lu tionary element right
now.... They believe that [the]
Mahdi [their messiah] is about to
approach, that there will be a
united world directed by the
Shiites, that Khomeini is the
prophet of the approaching Mahdi ;
and consequently, we have here a
fanatical reaction....
" In Islam," Dr. Habsburg contin–
ued, "tbere is a deep difference
between the Shiites and
the Sunnites. The Sun-
nites are a very cons truc-
tive element, whereas the
Shiites are from time to
time extremely explo–
sive....
If
the Iranians
win against the l raqis, you
can' t stop it anymore.... I
don' t say that the Shia will
rule all the way to Moroc–
co, but there will be explo–
sions everywhere and there
will be another unsett ling
element entering into the
[world] picture."
Jordan' s Entanglement
No country in the Middle
East is free of entangle–
ment in the escaJation of
regional violence, not even
those countries seemingly
at peace.
One of these countries
in the Middle East is the
kingdom of J ordan. The
author recently spent five
days there in its bus tling
capital, Amman.
Behind J ordan's appar–
ent prosperity (next to no
unemployment , with
much menial labor done
by imported Egyptian
contract workers) lurks a
growing danger.
Jordan is actively sup-
porting Iraq in its life-or-death
struggle against I ran. This support
was much in evidence on a side trip
taken to the south of Jordan.
The two-lane bl acktop Desert
Highway is the main arterial road
from Amman south to the Gulf of
Aqaba, J ordan's only port. The
road transports a major portion of
military supplies overland to lraq.
An incredible amount of truck traf–
fic uses this road, especially at
night when the vehicles operate in
convoys.
The outcome of the Gulf war is
not the only concern of the Jordan–
ian leadership. J ordan's pro-West–
ern but cautious King Hussein is
confronted now with perhaps his
most difficult decision since he
assumed power in the kingdom 31
years ago.
The decision he must make is
whether or not fi nally to negotiate
with the state of Israel on Middle
East matters, in effect joining the
U.S.-engineered "peace process."
The latest setback of Palestine
Liberation Organization chairman
Yasser Arafat would seem to otfer
the King the opportunity to re–
assert J ordanian authority in the
West Bank. Yet the King- the tar–
get of 11 assassination attempts
during his rule-is wary of exercis-
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