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EUROPE'S FATE
(Continued from page 4)
in West Germany. A far greater
number can be expected now,
observers feel.
Other political analysts believe
that the Social Democratic Party,
stripped of the conservative leader–
ship once provided by former
Chancellor Schmidt, will continue
to move further to the left. "Mr.
Vogel has made it clear," maintains
The Wa/1 Street Journal
of March
8, 1983, "the SPD will
stay no more than half
a step to the right of
the Greens."
(Bavarian Premier
Franz Josef Strauss,
incidentally, has re–
ferred to the Greens as
being little but Mos–
cow's cat's-paw inside
West Germany, a
charge the Greens
vehemently reject. The
G re en party, Dr.
Strauss says, is like a
tomato: lt starts out
green--but ends up
red.)
December-and
Beyond
Pressure from all sides on the
Kohl government to at least post–
pone the fateful D-day (D for
deployment) in December will
increase enormously.
End of the Alliance?
Over the long term, experts on both
sides of the Atlantic are viewing
with alarm the grave impact upon
the Atlantic alliance s hould a
united NATO front be breached.
" l f Moscow can stop the NATO
plan," says French foreign relations
expert Pierre Lellouche, writing in
NATO as an effective alliance.
Such a development would
directly play into the hands of
influential circles in America who
advocate a drastic withdrawal of
U.S . forces in Europe. These par–
ties would prefer to institute what
they call a global "all compass"
strategic policy for the United
States. Under this reasoning,
Amei-ica's preeminent postwar ties
to Europe would be drastically
downgraded.
French Fears About Germany
France is the nation
most deeply concerned
about trends in Europe
today. First of all the
French see Western
Europe as a whole
slowly drifting under
Soviet domination ,
with the protective
shield of America
eventually withdrawn.
Over the short run, the
most crucia l time
ahead is the last month
of 1983. Most Ger-
U.S. Vice-Presiden/ George Bush welcomed by Chancellor Helmut
Koh/ to Bonn earlier this year. Mr. Bush urged NATO allies to hold firm
to 1979 decision regarding intermediate-range nuclear missiles.
Second, París fore–
sees the possibility of a
reunified Germany,
also under Soviet in–
fluence. The G reen
movement in Germa–
ny, for example, advo–
cates a neutralized,
"nuclear free," and if
possible,
unified
Ger–
man nation in the heart
of Europe.
mans sincerely hope t hat progress
will be made before then in nego–
tiations between U.S. and Soviet
representatives regarding the so-
·Called Euromissiles. But if not , the
first elements of the new NATO
weapons will be due for deploy–
ment.
Ant imissile forces strenuously
opposed to deployment will test
West German democracy--so vi–
tally displayed in March- to its
limits . Already there have been prí–
vate warnings from sorne quarters
of the government regarding "dis–
allowable activit ies" by antinuclear
protestors.
Peace protestors in other N ATO
countries scheduled for the cruise
missiles, such as Britain and the
Netherlands, will also step up activ–
ities. In Holland they may succeed
in blocking installation.
June
1983
the January 24, 1983, international
edition of
N ewsweek,
"it will have
demonstrated that it can reverse a
NATO military decision and that it
now has more influence over West–
ern Europe than the United States
has.
"This would s igna! a fundamen–
tal shift in the postwar security
arrangements on the Continent."
Policy framers in West Germa–
ny's Social Democratic Party, for
example, have openly called for a
" security arrangement" with the
East to supplement or replace the
34-year-old NATO pact.
In the United States, a top State
Department official , Under-Secre–
tary of State Lawrence Eagleburg–
er, added that any retreat from its
decision to deploy nuclear weapons
in Western Europe this year would
be "the beginning of the end" of
The French know
that the key to German
reunification líes in Moscow's
hands. What if the Soviets offer
reunification in exchange for Ger–
man neutrality?
These fears were aptly expressed
by President Mitterrand in his
speech before the Bundestag. The
New York Times
of J anuary 24
reported on Mr. Mi tterrand's Bun–
destag address in this manner:
" Although he never used the
word
neutralism,
Mr. Mitterrand
attacked 'all those who would bet
on decoupling' and said they were
the people who risked creating an
imbalance of forces that would
th reaten peace."
Here was, continued the
Times
report: "a Western chief of
state ... saying that there is a
struggle going on for the future of
Europe, and ... that the question
of maintaining West Germany's
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