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JAPAN
Asia's Economic Superpower
Faces
Uncertain Future
by
Gene H. Hogberg
Will the dynamo of Asia be content to remain only an economic giant?
What can we expect from its new prime minister? Can militarily
vulnerable Japan continue to rely for its defense upon the United States? These are
vital questions as Japan moves into the mid 1980s.
T
HE ECONOMIC
picture
throughout Asia, com–
paratively speaking, is
still extremely "bullish."
The worldwide economic re–
cession-grim in many coun–
tries of the West-has only
s lowed economic growth in the
Far East by a pace or two.
During the 1970s Japan-the
economic "locomotive" of noncom–
munist Asia- posted a yearly
growth rate of about 6 percent.
During the current world down–
turn, the growth rate has been
pared back to a still highly respect–
able 4 percent.
Moreover the growth rates, past
and present, in other Far East Asían
economies that have patterned their
economies after that of Japan–
South Korea, Taiwart, Hong Kong
and Singapore- have been similar.
Throughout the past decade,
these countries, dubbed by one
British journalist "the Gang of
Four" and by others as "the four
little Japans," averaged an astound–
ing 9 percent average annual
growth rate. The figures for the
1980s so far show only a slight
drop-off.
The Japanese standard of living
now roughly approximates that of
the United States. Both its gross
national product (GNP).and popu-
March 1983
lation are roughly half that of the
United States. In 1960, Japan's
GNP was only 8 percent of Ameri–
ca's.
Poised for Gr eat Ad vances
"Over the next couple of decades
you will probably see more eco–
nomic growth in this region than in
the whole rest of the world," Clay–
ton Yeutter, president of the Chi–
cago Mercantile Exchange, said
during a recent visit to Tokyo.
"East Asia is the place for Ameri–
can business to make real efforts."
This predicted growth,
if
the
world rebounds from recession and
if
there is no trade war- mighty
big "ifs," especially the latter
one-will almost surely be led by
Japan.
Certainly no country in the
world is better prepared to face the
economic future. Japan's universi–
ties are training
1O times
as many
engineers as Britain's. Japanese
industry, moreover, employs more
people in the critica! area of
research and development than
Britain, France and West Germany
put together.
What alarms Japan's competi–
tion in the Free World-mainly the
United States and Western Eu–
rope-has been J a pan 's rapid
advance in electronics and high
technology.
They are acutely aware that what
has happened to the American and
British automotive industries, to
Swiss watches, to radio and televi–
sion manufacturers, is on the verge
of happening to their computer
industries.
From lmitators to lnnovato rs
The Japanese and their Asían neigh–
bors have long since advanced from
the lowly position of being mere imi–
tators of Western technology.
The Japanese and others, accord–
ing to
The Economist
of Britain
(June 19, 1982), "improve on the
technology they borrow, keeping an
ear cocked keenly for what the
market is demanding. ' '
From now on and into the
future, sorne experts predict that
Japan will be a leader in'
creativity
as well.
This aspect of Japanese national
character has not been heretofore
dominant. Japanese society lays
great stress upon group effort. The
individual that stands out in the
crowd-as most inventive geniuses
do-has not . been looked upon
favorably by his fellows. There is
an old Japanese proverb that states:
"The nail ' that sticks out the far–
thest gets hammered down."
Nevertheless, experts expect in–
novation and creativity to mush–
room in the years ahead, adding
more strength to the "Japanese
challenge." The principal key to
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