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CENTRAL AMERICA
(Continued from page 6)
believed to operate as a base for the
Soviet TU-95 heavy bomber, code–
named "The Bear" in the Wes t.
This bomber was classified in the
SALT 11 treaty as the Soviet
Union's primary heavy bomber.
Planes of this type are now being
used in r econnaissance flights
against U .S. naval vessels along the
Atlantic Coast for the first time.
Such a deployment amounts to a
clear violation of the 1962 post–
Cuban missile crisis agreement
whereby the Soviets agreed not to
station further offensive weapons in
return for a U.S. promise not to
overturn the Castro regime.
Thus it turns out that Premier
Nikita Khrushchev and not Presi–
dent John Kennedy was the real–
meaning
long-term-winner
of tbe
1962 Cuban missile confrontation.
An embarrassed Khrushchev lost
the initial skirmisb, having little
choice but to ship the weapons back
home. However, the future of
Cuba's revolutionary government
was assured, free to haunt a weak–
ened America in the years to come.
(The leaders of China, incidentally,
refer to the missile crisis and its
resultant " understanding" as the
"Caribbean Munich." )
The Flrs t Domino
Nicaragua, observes Carlos Rangel ,
is the first domino to fall in Central
America. The Soviets hope, he
says, that it will topple " collapsible
pieces going south toward Panama
and the Colombian rim of the Ca–
ribbean, and north toward Mexi–
co."
To help promote the regional
revolution and to secure the Sandi–
nista victory, Nicaragua's regular
army has expanded from the 8,000
men during the time of the late
dictator Anastasio Somoza to close
to 40,000 today. The goal is a
50 ,000-man regular army sup–
po rted by 200,000 reservists- a
force greater than the combined
strength of all the other Central
American countries. (The Nicara–
guans claim they need the huge
army to protect tbe country from
42
minor raids by ex-Somoza follow–
ers located nearby in Honduras and
as far away as Florida.)
Of greatest concern to Washing–
ton is Nicaragua's obvious intent to
become the region's unchallenged
air power. Runways of at least
three Nicaraguan airports are being
extended to accommodate Soviet–
made MiG fighter aircraft. The
Nicaraguans are expected to take
delivery soon of from 12 to 18 older
model MiGs, probably from Cuba
(expendable because of the new
MiG-23s delivered there). About
80 Nicaraguans have been sent to
Bulgaria for pilot training, presum–
ably for handling the MiGs.
Rumors persist that sorne MiGs
piloted by "friendly" powers are
al ready in place. Yasser Arafat
boasts tbat Palestine Liberation
Organization pilots are now ftying
for the Sandinistas.
El Salvador and Beyond
The battle front has shifted now to
El Salvador, secondly to Guate–
mala.
The leftist guerrillas in El Sal–
vador are doing everything in their
power to sabotage that beleaguered
nation's ravaged economy, in an
effort to force negotiations with the
government. From a negotiated set–
tlement to outright control would
only be a matter of one or two easy
steps.
Despite a stalemate on the bat–
tlefield, observers believe that the
leftist insurgents have the greater
wi/1
to win.
The United States is clearly in a
dilemma over El Salvador. lt is
considering sending hundreds of
millions of dollars more in aid- but
will tbe aid be used effectively?
Should the extreme right come to
power again, the position of the
United States would become un–
tenable. Washington would be seen
as "supporting oppression." But
should the guerrillas win despite
deepened U .S . involvement, their
victory would amount to another
shattering Vietnam-style defeat for
the United States- this time close
to borne.
Leftist insurgents, taken to Cuba
and East bloc countries for train–
ing, are now making headway in
Guatemala as well , especially in its
remote Indian-populated hinter–
lands. Counteraction to leftist
attacks has been violent.
Max Singer, deputy director of
the Hudson Institute, issues this
somber warning:
" If
El Salvador's revolutionary
government [of José Napoleón
Duarte] falls, there seems to be li t–
tle possibility of preventing either
the repressive military regime in
Guatemala or the freely elected
civi lian government oJ Honduras
from being replaced by Marxist–
Leninist regimes allied to Cuba.
Then drastic po/arization is /ikely
to be started in Mexico,
which is
nominally revolutionary but social–
ly backward. Violent conflict in
Mexico would be likely to have
serious security implications for
the United States."
And that's putting it mildly!
Certainly
severa / m il/ion
Mexicans
would stream across the U.S. bor–
der, paling into insignificance the
refugee problem from Cuba, El
Salvador and elsewhere in Central
America today.
Mexico's political leaders are
walking a tightrope. Their chal–
lenge is to maintain Mexico's 70-
year tradition of revolution-which
has included support for guerrilla
groups in Latín America- while
dampening any ftames of
real
revo–
lution at borne over the country' s
rapidly escalating economic prob–
lems.
The seeds of revolution, which
the Communists could capitalize on
for their own advantage, certainly
are present in Mexico. Sorne 40
percent of rural workers are said to
be unemployed and the majority of
Mexicans in the cities, earning very
low wages, are caught in a vicious
inftationary vise.
In February, the Mexican peso
tumbled precipitously in value in
the face of the country's sagging oil
revenues, whopping federal deficits
and soaring inftat ion.
Costa Rica and Panama
After being forced into exile in
1979, deposed Nicaraguan presi–
dent Anastasio Somoza warned
that Communist insurgents could
be "on the Rio Grande"- the U.S.-
The PLAIN TRUTH